The old adage was “There’s not much you can do about the weather.” Well, our lifestyle has led to climate change. Almost fifty years ago, climate scientists indicated that, with climate change, we’d see both increased frequency and severity of destructive climate events. That’s now a matter of record.
While there’s been a lot of hoopla, demonstrations and pledges, the amount of corrective action has been minimal. So, we need to adjust how and where we live, or perhaps parish. Here’s a new report. Comments afterwards.
● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Erin joined a long list of recent Category 5s.
Are they happening more often?
The Washington Post
22 August 2025
Erin became the latest in a string of the strongest type of hurricanes to roam the Atlantic Ocean in recent years. When its sustained winds exploded to 160 mph on Saturday, it became the 11th Category 5 storm in the basin since 2016.
It wasn’t always this way, but one has formed roughly every year in the past decade. To get a sense of how unusual that is:
Over the longer term, there have been only 33 seasons with Category 5s since 1924, or about one-third of all years. Before the last 10 years — when there have been 11 Category 5 hurricanes — it took 27 years for the prior 11 of that level and 34 years for the 11 before that.
The environment that sent Erin into the history books was primed, thanks largely to another year of widespread warm water across the Atlantic Ocean. Erin became yet another storm to rapidly intensify well beyond the criteria for explosive development, taking advantage of those conditions.
The 10-year running sum of Category 5s is now at its highest mark for modern records. And with the bulk of the season still to come, historical odds suggest the Atlantic could attempt to churn out another monster hurricane or two.
Warm water and other key drivers
Getting a Category 5 by mid-August is rare. Erin ended up tied for the fifth earliest on record, although the back half of the month has more numerous instances of strong storms. The latest event follows a 2024 that offered up Beryl on July 2, the earliest Category 5 on record by more than two weeks.
Michael Lowry, a hurricane specialist and storm surge expert at the TV station WPLG in Miami, said in an email …
“We can almost always tie early-season Cat 5s
back to abnormally warm sea surface temperatures.”
The two prior years witnessed some of the warmest water temperatures on record globally, boosted during the rise and fall of a powerful climatic event called El Niño. Even in a somewhat cooled state this year, much of the global ocean has continued to run above to well above the baseline average.
And that baseline is rising across the season in the tropical Atlantic. In the comparison below, it is easy to see that the footprint of warm and very warm water has increased substantially over August from the most recent 30 years to the 30 years before that. Waters in key regions are about a degree warmer overall, which pushes zones of already favorable conditions for major hurricanes to a greater expanse. Lowry said …
“Erin chugged along at a gradual pace for
days, then blossomed right when it touched
the much warmer-than-average western
Atlantic waters. Very little otherwise changed
about its environment, including the shear.”
Analysis he shared showed that Erin was sitting in an area where water temperatures were as warm as some of the top five years on record northeast of Puerto Rico. While disruptive wind shear can keep storms from organizing, even over the hottest of waters, the toasty seas go a long way to providing ideal real estate for the most powerful of storms.
Erin ultimately fit squarely within recent research and evidence that rapid intensification is becoming more common as the climate warms. Once a hurricane, it gained 85 mph over 24 hours, easily more than doubling the criteria of 35 mph in 24 hours.
There are additional attributes that are arguably more complex, like multiyear La Niñas becoming more common in a warming world. La Niña years, unlike their cousin El Niño, favor intense tropical activity in the Atlantic Ocean thanks in part to the La Niña tendency to offer relaxation of disruptive wind shear in that basin.
Research has also found that there is a trend toward a La Niña-like base state that favors Atlantic activity while often limiting activity in the Pacific Ocean.
Is this a new normal?
Category 5s still make up a small percentage of all storms, and it’s difficult to decipher any real shifts in overall activity. Kim Wood, an associate professor at the University of Arizona, said …
“One factor to keep in mind is that we may now be
more capable of capturing Category 5 peak intensity.”
Using a somewhat more encompassing but still high-end 130-mph threshold for Category 4-plus, a similar pattern emerges, suggesting there is in fact an increase in the most powerful storms, Wood and Lowry both noted.
Wood referenced the 1996-to-2005 period, which had 25 storms that reached at least Category 4 strength. That stretch was capped by the historic 2005 season, which produced storms such as Katrina. Including Erin, the 2016-to-2025 decade now has 27 such storms, Wood said.
Lowry said that “the increase in higher-end Atlantic hurricanes is consistent with what the research has shown us,” or that there are more frequent such events than in the past. He highlighted that there was an extended period in the 1970s and 1980s with low hurricane counts in the Atlantic, largely attributed to reduced pollutants, that probably helps mask an otherwise persistent longer-term upward climb.
A paper published last year adds more insight, concluding that ultrapowerful hurricanes are likely to become more common. One of the favored locations for this to happen is a neighborhood close to the United States, or that of the western Atlantic, gulf and Caribbean, including an area that just saw Erin traverse its waters.
It’s not all about warm water, Wood cautions. Another key to storm intensification and maximum intensity is a temperature component in the atmosphere above storms. Wood and others have found that temperatures aloft are also warming, which helps curb available instability compared with when air aloft is cooler.
What about the rest of this year?
Since nearly 80 percent of the Category 5s before this year occurred in September or beyond, it is reasonable to consider that more intense hurricanes are still to come this year.
Predictions made before Erin indicated about five to nine more hurricanes in 2025, two to five of which could reach Category 3 or higher.
Waters are poised to stay warm, and the wave train that spawned Erin is continuing to spit out more tropical disturbances. Government forecasters were already monitoring several of them in Erin’s wake, and the forecast into September remains favorable for additional tropical cyclone development.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration also recently announced a La Niña watch for the coming winter, following last winter’s La Niña.
Some years with early Category 5s include 2024, 2005, 1980 and 1969. All had storms reach Category 5 as early or earlier than Erin. The most recent two had more than one Category 5. The latter two did not. This might suggest it’s a flip of a coin, which is higher odds than average. Wood said …
“I’d hesitate to say that having one Cat 5 in
August means we’re likely to get another one.”
Then again, the last decade has taught forecasters to expect that memorable storms will frequently blow up to their fullest potential.
● ● ● ● ● ● ●
As recent history indicates, the majority of both nations and individuals is comfortable parading and pledging, but not actually changing. All the climatic destruction has been viewed on TV or on our laptops … from comfortable positions of safety, but not experienced, personally. Our lifestyle is a composite of our behavioral habits, and … habits are difficult to change!
Why spend money to put solar panels on my roof as long as the power company is in business? Why switch to an electric car as long as gas stations and repair shops exist? Government will eventually solve these problems.
In personal terms, “known” is more comfortable than the potentially risky “unknown.” The vast majority believe they can live through all these climate change reports and predictions without having to change how they live.
So, turning to D, here are some suggestions we can do as individuals to respond to these increases in climate-related disasters…
“What can each of you do in response to this article?
“Our answer is: prepare, prepare, prepare.
“The first part of preparation is to think about where to live. There is no place on Earth that is fully protected from climate change. So, find a place where you can comfortably live as you respond to climate issues yourself. You may prefer a coastal site or a forested site, or a mountain area. It will vary for different geographies and for different individuals.
“The second part of preparation is to know what is possible as far as climate issues in the area you choose. Hurricanes? Forest fires? Flooding? And then prepare to respond to that accordingly, which includes emergency packs with food, medicine, first aid, blankets, water, flashlights and preparations if you choose to stay in your home. Also have an emergency evacuation plan.
“The world is getting bumpier and part of it is climate change. Remember, as flight attendants say prior to taking off, take care of yourself first, then try to take care of others who need help.”
