Here’s a report that updates where we stand in our effort to transition away from the level of fossil fuel use that threatens our very ability to sustain human civilizations. As I’ve been noticing, breaking habits is more difficult than making pledges. This report is about five months old – prior to the changes brought about by the Trump administration. Comments afterwards.
● ● ● ● ● ● ●
‘No sign’ of promised fossil fuel
transition as emissions hit new high
Despite nations’ pledges at Cop28 a year ago, the
burning of coal, oil and gas continued to rise in 2024
Damian Carrington in Baku
The Guardian
12 Nov 2024
There is “no sign” of the transition away from burning fossil fuels that was pledged by the world’s nations a year ago, with 2024 on track to set another new record for global carbon emissions.
The new data, released at the UN’s Cop29 climate conference in Azerbaijan, indicates that the planet-heating emissions from coal, oil and gas will rise by 0.8% in 2024. In stark contrast, emissions have to fall by 43% by 2030 for the world to have any chance of keeping to the 1.5C temperature target and limiting “increasingly dramatic” climate impacts on people around the globe.
The world’s nations agreed at Cop28 in Dubai in 2023 to “transition away” from fossil fuels, a decision hailed as a landmark given that none of the previous 27 summits had called for restrictions on the primary cause of global heating. On Monday, the Cop28 president, Sultan Al Jaber, told the summit in Baku: “History will judge us by our actions, not by our words.”
The rate of increase of carbon emissions has slowed over the last decade or so, as the rollout of renewable energy and electric vehicles has accelerated. But after a year when global heating has fueled deadly heatwaves, floods and storms, the pressure is on the negotiators meeting in Baku to finally reach the peak of fossil fuel burning and start a rapid decline.
Cop29 will focus on mobilising the trillion dollars a year needed for developing nations to curb their emissions as they improve the lives of their citizens and to protect them against the now inevitable climate chaos to come. The summit also aims to increase the ambition of the next round of countries’ emission-cutting pledges, due in February.
The new data comes from the Global Carbon Budget project, a collaboration of more than 100 experts led by Prof Pierre Friedlingstein, at the University of Exeter, UK. …
“The impacts of climate change are becoming
increasingly dramatic, yet we still see no sign
that burning of fossil fuels has peaked. Time
is running out and world leaders meeting at
Cop29 must bring about rapid and deep cuts
to fossil fuel emissions.”
Prof Corinne Le Quéré, at the University of East Anglia, UK, said …
“The transition away from fossil fuels is
clearly not happening yet at the global
level, but our report does highlight that
there are 22 countries that have decreased
their emissions significantly [while their
economies grew].”
The 22 countries, representing a quarter of global emissions, include the UK, Germany and the US.
The calculation of 2024 emissions is based on the data available up to October and estimates for the final months of the year, which have been accurate in the past. More than 37bn tonnes will be emitted in 2024, about 4m tonnes an hour.
Gas emissions show the biggest annual increase, 2.4%, thanks to increased use in China and elsewhere. Oil burning increased by 0.9%, driven in particular by international flights, while coal emissions are expected to rise marginally by 0.2%. The emissions of China, the world’s biggest
polluter, are expected to rise slightly.
“It has had another record year of growth
in renewable power, but coal power also
kept growing due to even faster growth in
electricity demand from hi-tech industries
and residential consumption,”
… said Jan Ivar Korsbakken, at Center for International Climate Research (Cicero) in Norway. Emissions from oil in China have probably peaked owing to the boom in electric vehicles.
Emissions from the second biggest polluter, the US, are expected to decline slightly, with coal continuing its decline to its lowest level in 120 years, but offset by an increase in gas burning. Coal emissions are falling even faster in the European Union, driving a 3.8% drop in emissions. However, coal burning is increasing in India as its economy grows strongly, leading to a 4.6% rise.
The Global Carbon Budget also calculates the emissions from the destruction of forests, some of which are compensated for by the regrowth of trees elsewhere. These emissions have declined by about 20% over the last decade. However, they rose in 2024 because of the drying effect of El Niño, which increased droughts and wildfires in key regions.
Most of the emissions from deforestation comes from Brazil, Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Prof Julia Pongratz, at the University of Munich, Germany., said …
“Much of these emissions result from
the export of goods to the global north,
for example soya beans from South
America going to China and to Europe.”
Overall, the combined emissions from both fossil fuels and deforestation will reach another record high in 2024. Dr Glen Peters, also at the Center for International Climate Research, said …
“There is a feeling that a peak in global fossil
CO2 emissions is imminent, but it remains
elusive. The world continually finds ways to
burn ever more fossil fuels.”
Romain Ioualalen, at Oil Change International, said …
“At Cop28, all countries pledged to transition
away from fossil fuels but, on the ground, we
have witnessed the opposite: new oil and gas
projects are being approved around the world,
in complete defiance of climate science.
“At Cop29, we need to see countries come
to the table with [commitments] that end
fossil fuel expansion and accelerate
renewable energy.”
The host of Cop29, Azerbaijan, is planning a major expansion in gas production in the next decade.
● ● ● ● ● ● ●
I have to admit to a growing distrust in the ability of most governments to curb the emission problem, which literally threatens our ability to sustain life on Earth. We can point to bungling bureaucracies or governments – even before Trump’s chaos-inducing action … now controlled by the very industries that are mostly causing the problem.
And though the problem is continuing to become worse, the mainstream media – from which most people get the news on which they depend in order to plan their lives – is owned by the wealthy individuals who are aligned with the emission-causing industries. Their headlines no longer feature our need to transition to sustainable living, so we might assume that the problem is simply “last year’s news” and forget about it, just as new songs or movies surface, become popular for a time, then fade from thought. In fact, last year’s election debates and speeches essentially ignored the problem.
The Garden Atrium homes are the average size of a U.S. home. They have three bedrooms and two bathrooms and had an initial cost that was about the same as that for a new traditionally-designed home. But my only utility bill (other than municipal trash pick-up) is Verizon. We use no fossil fuels. Our indoor air is actually healthier than outdoor air. Our solar panels power both our home and our car. And you might notice that all the fear-based ads for car repair insurance don’t apply to e-cars. So …
We have a home and car that’s equal to or more beautiful than most but … cost us a fraction in which to live. I’m not brilliant. And I’m not wealthy. But I find that I’m somehow open to trying possibilities. And our personal action is now essential, as governments seem unable to ensure the climate and food-producing abilities of our Earth. Are we really a species that will self-destruct, especially when an alternative exists? Adding D’s comments …
To counter Stuart’s frustrations, we would ask each of our readers:
“Where do you want to be in five years?
Or maybe even ten years?”
We see so much of the world getting pummeled by extreme weather. And that extreme weather is caused by climate change. There is no place that is perfect in which to live. We ask you to think about:
‘What can you do?’
Whom else can you influence?
And how wide can you carry a message?
It is an issue that will affect every person on Earth. Where are you in this dilemma? And what can you actually do … for yourself and for others?
