Crimes, violent or non-violent, are part of mankind’s history. And periodic violence between individuals, groups, or nations has also been part of our history. But when conflicts between large groups and between nations begins to steadily increase, globally – unnerving large populations and precipitating deaths and movements by millions of immigrants – we’d best examine the cause before we are personally soon part of it. Comments afterwards.
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World’s conflict zones increased by
two-thirds in past three years, report reveals
Wars have spread and intensified, with far-reaching impacts on global
economic growth and food security, according to latest Conflict Intensity Index
The Guardian
21 Nov 2024
The proportion of the world engulfed by conflict has grown 65% – equivalent to nearly double the size of India – over the past three years, according to a new report.
Ukraine, Myanmar, the Middle East and a “conflict corridor” around Africa’s Sahel region have seen wars and unrest spread and intensify since 2021, according to the latest Conflict Intensity Index (CII), published by risk analysts Verisk Maplecroft.
While there was a lull in the levels of conflict globally during the Covid-19 pandemic, experts say there has been a rising trend of violence for at least a decade, while many longstanding crises continue unabated.
Hugo Brennan, research director at Verisk Maplecroft, said recent conflicts have had far-reaching impacts on businesses, economic growth and food security, with supply chains disturbed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which endangered grain exports to the Middle East and Africa, and attacks by Houthi rebels from Yemen on Red Sea shipping. He said …
“Conflict risks are increasing. they have
for the last few years and global businesses
need to think about that. You can look at
international media and think: ‘I don’t have
a factory in Sudan, it does not affect me,’
but because of the supply chain impacts, a
conflict in a faraway place can impact you.”
According to the report, the equivalent of 6.15m sq km (2.4m sq miles) is afflicted by fighting between or within states, meaning 4.6% of the world’s landmass is now affected by conflict compared with 2.8% in 2021, with the number of deaths in conflict rising by 29%. In total, 27 countries, including Ecuador, Colombia, India, Indonesia and Thailand, have experienced a significant increase in risk since on the CII since 2021.
The report identified a “conflict corridor” covering the Sahel and Horn of Africa, from Mali to Somalia, where it said violence had doubled in the past three years. It said 86% of Burkina Faso was now embroiled in conflict, while Sudan and Ethiopia have seen large-scale outbreaks of violence.
Angela Rosales, CEO of SOS Children’s Villages International, which helps children separated from their families, said 470 million children worldwide are affected by wars, including in Ukraine, Sudan, Gaza and Lebanon, with serious impacts that go beyond death and injury. She said …
“Children in conflict-affected areas are at
risk of losing family care if their homes are
destroyed, parents are killed or if they
become separated when fleeing violence.
They are especially vulnerable to exploita-
tion, enslavement, trafficking and abuse.”
Prof Clionadh Raleigh, president of civilian harm monitor Acled (Armed Conflict Location and Event Data), said that while new conflicts were emerging, with a 27% rise in violent events since the Ukraine war, older conflicts were also persisting.
“There are far fewer conflicts ending or
becoming less intense and there are
far more of them cropping up,”
… she said, highlighting that in countries such as Myanmar, with numerous armed rebellions involving smaller groups, it was difficult to reach an all-encompassing peace settlement.
“These smaller conflicts, they tend to be able
to evolve, and they’re very flexible to the
political system they find themselves in.
So they can be very difficult to end.”
Raleigh said she was concerned that violence would only increase, partly because of tensions between Iran and Israel but also because there is a trend of perpetrators of coups and assassinations, or militias using violence to impose power, being able to act without facing consequences.
Iain Overton, executive director of Action on Armed Violence, a charity that monitors civilian harm, said there are trends of rising violence if compared with 2010, which included highs during the middle of the decade in Syria and Iraq.
He noted that compared to the mid-2010s, when much of the violence involved non-state armed groups who relied on small arms and improvised explosives, there was a more recent rise in violence involving clashing states. Overton said …
“The 2020s are going to be defined
as the decade of the airstrike and
particularly the drone strike.”
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I often find truly noteworthy comments in movies that were not done for their pure entertainment value. In this blog, I’m using a few quotes from “The Shoes of the Fisherman,” an old Anthony Quinn film that begins with Quinn as a political prisoner in Siberia and ends with him as the new pope.
After his release by request of the Vatican, Quinn – now in Rome and a newly appointed cardinal – the current pope died. Quinn was now part of the conclave for electing a new pope. In evening deliberations after two days of dialogue, with no dominant vote to elect a new pope, some cardinals began commenting how young priests were adapting to changing times, A senior cardinal commented that, through inexperience, those priests could be causing even greater problems, which could lead to violence. Quinn said …
“Violence is a reaction against a situation
that has become intolerable, isn’t it?”
(I think we can see parallels to what is happening today, globally.)
The next morning, after continued deliberations among the cardinals, and another failed election attempt, Quinn was elected as the new pope. Then, in the coming days …
The Russian Premier asked Quinn to meet with him and China’s leader, in Moscow, to help solve a major issue: China was suffering from famine and might be forced to initiate nuclear war to get the food needed to feed its population. Quinn, after consulting with his cardinals, who were hesitant to support his meeting with two Marxist leaders, said …
“If we cannot find a way to make
peace among the peoples, then the
Earth will be blackened and there will
be no flowers any more for any of us.”
So, even before we had global wireless telecommunication and the internet, Quinn – or the writers of the movie’s script – realized the need for global thinking. A non-zero-sum situation demands win-win commitments, or the outcome will invariably be lose-lose. That’s exactly the situation we face today.
Then, in his meeting, Quinn’s ideas of writing papers and making presentations to heads of state were rejected by China’s leader, who said …
“His holiness goes back to Rome and makes
a great speech. He writes letters, sends out
messages and they are ignored, very politely,
of course. Now what has he lost? Nothing.
What has he gained? Much. He is a noble man,
a peace maker, who failed to make peace.
“When I came here today, I put my neck
on the executioner’s block. When I go back
across the border, my head may well be
chopped off. That’s my risk. What’s yours?”
Today, I think of major climate change conferences, all ending with a photograph of the “global leaders” who participated. However, we’re now finding that their pledges mean very little, and their heads will not be chopped off.
Their lack of genuine commitment is not slowing the climate problems that were envisioned many decades ago. Those leaders still enjoy their food, clothing, and shelters. And those of us who have not (yet) suffered from the disastrous climate change events still drive gas cars and live with natural gas and fossil fuel generated power. However …
Affordable and money-saving solutions already exist. The solution must come from us, as consumers.
Adding D’s comments …
“We have a different take on the chaos of these times. There is very little that most of us can do to resolve these conflicts. What one can do, in addition to what Stuart has written, is do the difficult inner work of resolving anger, frustration, lack of worthiness, and lack of love within ourselves.
“This is a time to clean out all these inner conflicts with each individual on Earth. And as we get larger numbers of people getting internally stronger, and we have a quorum on individuals that radiates peace and love (which we know sounds aery-fairy) the world will begin to shift.
“There is no accident that the current chaos is upon us. It is a time for the dark side of society to emerge, so it can be dealt with. This is the beginning of a new way of residing on Earth.”
