This announcement rattled me! Do you recall the “Paris Accord” and all the pledges made by country after country to abide by it? The outcome? It seems that politicians say whatever gets a positive response at the moment, but they do not make genuine commitments. Also, if one administration does initiate some positive action, the next administration abolishes it.
When, as marketing consultant, I did market research to help a client better anticipate the future status of a given market, we consistently found that change was stronger than we’d forecast and also happened sooner. Well … that’s exactly what’s happening.
Exceeding the 1.5 C temperature rise was forecast to hurt food production and lead to more severe and more frequent climate problems. We now have more migration than at any time in history; when people can’t eat, they seek food elsewhere, or parish. And forest fires and heat-related deaths are rapidly accelerating. Here’s a report; I’ll add suggestions afterwards.
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Temperatures 1.5C above pre-industrial
era average for 12 months, data shows
Copernicus Climate Change Service says results
a ‘large and continuing shift’ in the climate
The Guardian
7 Jul 2024
The world has baked for 12 consecutive months in temperatures 1.5C (2.7F) greater than their average before the fossil fuel era, new data shows.
Temperatures between July 2023 and June 2024 were the highest on record, scientists found, creating a year-long stretch in which the Earth was 1.64C hotter than in preindustrial times.
The findings do not mean world leaders have already failed to honour their promises to stop the planet heating 1.5C by the end of the century – a target that is measured in decadal averages rather than single years – but that scorching heat will have exposed more people to violent weather. A sustained rise in temperatures above this level also increases the risk of uncertain but catastrophic tipping points.
Carlo Buontempo, director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, which analysed the data, said the results were not a statistical oddity but a “large and continuing shift” in the climate. He said …
“Even if this specific streak of extremes
ends at some point, we are bound to see
new records being broken as the climate
continues to warm. This is inevitable
unless we stop adding greenhouse gases
into the atmosphere and the oceans.”
Copernicus, a scientific organisation that belongs to the EU’s space programme, uses billions of measurements from satellites, ships, aircraft and weather stations to track key climate metrics. It found June 2024 was hotter than any other June on record and was the 12th month in a row with temperatures 1.5C greater than their average between 1850 and 1900.
Because temperatures in some months had “relatively small margins” above 1.5C, the scientists said, datasets from other climate agencies may not confirm the 12-month temperature streak.
Whether pumped out the chimney of a coal-burning power plant or ejected from the exhaust pipe of a passenger plane, each carbon molecule clogging the Earth’s atmosphere traps heat and warps weather. The hotter the planet gets, the less people and ecosystems can adapt.
Aditi Mukherji, a director at research institute CGIAR and co-author of the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, said …
“This is not good news at all.
“We know that extreme events increase
with every increment of global warming
– and at 1.5C, we witnessed some of
the hottest extremes this year.”
Some ecosystems are more vulnerable than others. In its latest review of the science, the IPCC found that 1.5C of warming will kill off 70-90% of tropical coral reefs, while warming of 2C will wipe them out almost entirely.
A Guardian survey of hundreds of IPCC authors this year found three-quarters expect the planet to heat by at least 2.5C by 2100, with about half of the scientists expecting temperatures above 3C. The increments sound small but can mean the difference between widespread human suffering and “semi-dystopian” futures.
Mukherji compared 1C of global heating to a mild fever and 1.5C a medium-to-high grade fever.
“Now imagine a human body with
[that] temperature for years. Will that
person function normally anymore?
“That’s currently our Earth
system. It is a crisis.”
François Gemenne, an IPCC author and director of the Hugo Observatory at
the University of Liège, said the climate crisis is not a binary issue.
“It is not 1.5C or death – every 0.1C matters
a great deal because we’re talking about
global average temperatures, which translate
into massive temperature gaps locally.”
Even in a best-case scenario, he said, people need to prepare for a warmer world and “beef up” response plans.
“Adaptation is not an admission that
our current efforts are useless.”
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While I’ve taken zillions of courses and have several degrees, I have to translate a concept to physical reality before I really grasp it. When climate change surfaced as an issue, over 50 years ago, I began thinking about what I could personally do about it. I began brain-picking many specialists I met in the course of my consulting work. Then, at the turn of the century, it was time to see if the ideas really worked.
We found a successful developer to coach us, cashed in all our assets, and began building the Garden Atrium net zero sustainable community. Well … the technology for heating, cooling, water, air quality, and electricity (for home and e-car) all worked “as planned.” Then the surprise: the #1 reason people bought a home was the aesthetics of the home and site, not to be eco-friendly or save money. So …
In books, articles, blogs, and presentations I’ve been advocating a change to “Sustainable Living.” From what I’ve learned from others in our little community, they’re happier, healthier (as some had allergies vanish), and find that it costs less. My only utility bill is Verizon. We use no fossil fuels. But sharing experiences and advocating is kind of “preachy”; How can I get you to actually do these things? One small 7-home development won’t change the trend that’s wiping out our planet. Well …
While I deplore scare tactics, I also remember stories about people who left Nazi Germany when the early warning signs appeared, and those who thought things would get better, and stayed. Well, this report clearly gives us the early warning signs. Politicians of any party or country have proven to be unable to solve this problem. And we can’t migrate elsewhere. We need to act … now!
(Next week: detailed cost information. Bottom line: using average numbers from Google, the cost for a new electric car and all the power you need for your car and your home is only $66 a month, And as the sun is reliable … you’d have no power outages!)
