I’m in the process of reading Ishmael, an easy-to-read fictional paperback that’s really getting to the underlying essence of the environmental problems we’re facing. And by analogy it’s illustrating how the problem is actually increasing exponentially.
Meanwhile, the following essay, which also looks at the big picture roots of the problem we’re facing, popped up in my data searches. One of the (initially startling) things I’ve learned is, “There are no accidents … none.” While there’s a lot of fear from all sorts of causes going around right now, I’m not intending to add to the pile. But I do believe we need to heed the sense of urgency … to move from “interested observer” or even “advocate” to “player.” And soon. Comments and suggestions afterwards.
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Vigorous action needed,
and soon, on climate change
Society faces three options in addressing climate
threats … one of them unacceptable: do nothing
and suffer consequences of that inaction.
Henry Jacoby, Gary Yohe and Richard Richels
Yale Climate Connections
October 16, 2020
Our essays in this series have presented compelling scientific evidence about the warming of the planet, reviewed the evidence that human activity is its principal cause, and discussed the resulting economic and environmental damages. Now comes the question of what we are going to do about it. The options are clear:
- Nations can work toward eliminating greenhouse gas emissions and reducing the scale of future warming.
- Governments and private actors can, and will, invest in measures to protect home and livelihood from effects of changes that cannot be prevented.
- Or human societies and natural ecosystems will suffer the severe harms of inaction.
The more they (really we) do now and in the near future, the smaller will be the residual damages imposed on ourselves, our children, and our grandchildren. The choice is ours.
The suffering is already here, of course. In some places, it is almost impossible to bear despite growing investments in adaptation.
So what is missing?
A commitment to emissions reductions appropriate to the special nature of the climate change threat. Fortunately, with a smart choice of policy measures, the emissions control challenge can still be met at a tolerable economic cost.
What makes threats posed by climate change ‘special’?
And what is the special nature of the threat?
Climate change is unlike other environmental insults, such as polluted urban air. Risks associated with most pollutants depend on current emissions whose corrosive properties and damages are generally reversible. Not so for our influence on the climate.
Human emissions contribute to stocks of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere, some with very long residence times there. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most important of these gases, and natural processes cannot reduce its concentration resulting from human emissions except over centuries to millennia.
Over the past several thousand years, Earth’s temperature has varied within a narrow range of less than 1°C, about 1.6° F – stable conditions under which human society has thrived.
Spurred by human emissions of greenhouse gases, however, the planet’s temperature has increased by 1.1°C in a flash, a bit over one century. The current economic and environmental damages are the result of just the ongoing warming of the planet so far; that warming is spurred by greenhouse emissions since the industrial revolution, and it cannot be reversed on human time-scales. And each year of continued emissions commits Earth to ever-higher temperatures.
Avoiding ‘potentially calamitous’ warming
The need for an urgent response is made clear by even a cursory look at what is at stake if this human influence on the climate is allowed to continue unabated. (…) warming of 2°C would be more damaging than the current 1.1°C increase. Further increases would be worse, and the still higher increases potentially calamitous.
More troubling, even the damages we know a good deal about, and can expect at these higher temperatures, do not tell the whole story. There are risks, still poorly understood, of so-called tipping points, (…) in which case the Earth might undergo a radical environmental shift. Examples include an unstoppable melting of Greenland and the Antarctic ice sheets that will yield many meters of sea-level rise, or an acceleration in the outgassing of CO2 and methane (an especially potent greenhouse gas) from tundra ecosystems that would rapidly increase the pace of warming.
Needed soon: ‘tenacious, long-term effort’
to control greenhouse gas emissions
Continued greenhouse emissions will push these risks higher and higher, and managing them demands a prompt, vigorous emissions control effort.
In framing a response there is no simple temperature goal or emissions target that will determine success or failure of the effort. A focus on such a mistaken, do-or-die, achievement, if some particular target appears unlikely to be met, would risk causing despair, and a shift elsewhere, of public energies. Managing the climate threat will require a tenacious, long-term effort to limit greenhouse emissions whatever the level of achievement at any time along the way.
Of course, as economists are wont to say, there is no free lunch. There will be costs to the economy in the transition away from fossil fuels and in the cutting of other greenhouse emissions. Fortunately, studies of long-term climate policy routinely find that, with effective international cooperation, deep reductions in global emissions could be achieved over time with only a few percent loss in economic activity. And these estimates don’t account for the costs avoided by the lowering of future climate change.
Moreover, there is continuing improvement in technology and policy design. For example, the costs of low-carbon technologies like wind and solar power continue to fall, and economically efficient emissions pricing initiatives are being ever more widely applied to wean economies off fossil fuels. One indication of growing confidence that costs are manageable is that the European Union and China talk of reducing their emissions to zero by around mid-century.
Whatever the overall economic costs of cutting warming emissions may turn out to be, the greatest burdens will fall on a narrow set of businesses, fuel producing regions, and employment groups. In a number of U.S. states and regions, the prerequisites for aggressive emissions reduction likely include programs to ameliorate these short-term impacts, perhaps including extended unemployment support and training for workers whose jobs disappear permanently.
As the second largest emitter of greenhouse gases and world power, the U.S. and its response to the climate challenge are crucial. Evaluation of U.S. performance to date depends on where you look. On the one hand, many individuals, non-profit organizations and business firms are actively pursuing emissions-reducing investments and changes in operating practices. Also, states and cities have adopted aggressive emission targets and are implementing policies and programs to meet them.
On the other hand, the achievements of these earnest efforts are limited by a lack of supportive, coordinated emissions policies from the U.S. federal government. Still more troubling, one side-effect of this domestic inaction is a failure of national leadership within the global climate effort, a topic for our next essay.
Our message, then, is clear. With intelligent actions, strenuous emissions control policies will impose manageable costs on the overall economy, though the energy transition will be more painful for some business sectors and regions. Not taking prompt action would, however, be very expensive. Further delay raises the risk of ever-increasing, perhaps catastrophic, environmental and economic damages.
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One of the major changes to our lives – a change that was barely imagined in the history of our civilization – is the computer and, soon afterwards, global wireless telecommunication. That change did not come as a result of government policies or laws. It came from innocuous places such as Nikola Tesla’s visions while feeding pigeons in the park that were then materialized in his laboratory. It came from Alan Turing’s visions in Bletchley Park and Steve Jobs’ visions that were materialized in his parents’ garage.
Large corporations, not as agile in creating new directions, then take some innovation and move it into widespread acceptance. Much later, governments enter the scene to regulate the change.
That means that each of us – even if we’re feeling like tiny particles in an overwhelmingly enormous universe – need to actually be the players who lead the change that will enable our human civilization to continue. As I often do, I’ve asked D, the entity my wife channels, for comments …
“This is the time for each person living on the planet to ask, ‘What can I do?’ Each of you will have a different answer. Inaction is not an option; doing nothing is accelerating the heating of the Earth. Each individual needs to start somewhere, be it putting solar panels on your roof, buying an electric car, or stopping using chemicals on your gardens and lawns.
“Once you’ve taken your first step, you’ll have begun to build some momentum. What will be your next step?”
Finishing with some good news …
- When the Covid-19 lockdowns first happened, some surprisingly fast and very positive change happened to air quality and sea life in many areas. When given a chance, Mother Earth will respond quickly.
- In developing Garden Atriums, a tiny net zero sustainable community, I’ve learned that changing to “sustainable living” involves no sacrifices. It’s actually a better, more satisfying, and even more economical quality-of-life experience.
(For Instagram users, here’s a link, with added visuals, to many of the sustainability blogs we’ve posted: https://instagram.com/thegardenatriums?igshid=azp2ilab6dgc )